相信大家都有在餐厅吃饭或者咖啡店喝咖啡,等餐等位等到内伤的经历。有时候为了等咖啡,耽误了上班和送孩子,有时候在忙碌的餐馆想找服务员,却半天找不到人为你服务。

就在上个月云栖大会武汉峰会上,阿里巴巴展示了它们超强的人工智能点单技术,客户以每秒 5 个字的语速向人和机器同时点单。人类咖啡师完成30多个订单用时 2 分 37 秒,而机器只用了 49 秒。

民以食为天,人工智能大大便利了大家“吃”的需求。人脸识别点餐、机器人点餐送餐这些黑科技已经得到了实现。还有人研发出一种“炒菜机器人”,设定好菜单,就能自己按照流程迅速做完一碗香气喷喷的菜。

上周末全家带着孩子一起去郊外采草莓,小鬼头说:“农民伯伯真辛苦,我采了一箩筐,都累得走不动了。”我告诉他,现在已经有机器人能够采草莓啦,它还可以辨别果实成熟程度,以后不需要一颗一颗用人工采摘啦。

人工智能已经颠覆了我们的想象。前不久,在西班牙世界零售大会上,刘强东说了一句话: 十年内,我们将用AI技术颠覆传统管理与服务方式。京东员工将从现在的16万减少到8万,将全面实现「无人公司」

这就意味着将有一大波一线员工面临失业,那些贡献一般、价值不高、可替代性强的员工,将毫无疑问地被淘汰。

这对即将面对未来的孩子家长来说,又有什么启示呢?

1

未来的残酷在于

孩子要跟24小时不睡觉的机器抢饭碗

如果未来真如刘强东所言,100%实现AI和机器人运营后,那京东的员工总数,可能不止减少50%,甚至只剩下10%的员工。

因为相比之下,机器人不吃不喝不休息,并且不用缴纳各种费用,性价比远超过吃喝拉撒还要交五险一金的人类。

千万不要以为只有蓝领工作会面临这一风险。

一年前,我觉得人工智能可以做的,不过就是简单而机械的工作。但是,自从阿尔法狗一战成名后,人工智能在人文领域取得的成绩,一次次刷新了我的认知。

原先,摩根大通的律师和贷款人员每年要花费360000小时去审阅合同,但现在,德勤最新开发的财物机器人,一个机器人可以顶替15个财务的工作,而且可以每周24小时*7日的工作。36万小时的人力工作,财务机器人只需几秒就能完成,更是1分钟可以完成人工15分钟的工作!

荷兰ING银行宣布了一个可以让他们在未来省下近9亿欧元的“数码转换”计划。而计划的内容就是:先砍掉5800名员工,占员工总数13%;未来再视情况让另外1200名员工转职或是裁掉。

 

(8年前和现在的瑞银集团的交易大厅对比)

全球第一个24小时开放的智能无人警局中,搭载生物识别软件的人工智能警察,可通过扫描找出犯罪嫌疑人,可帮助前来办业务的市民,还能自如的穿梭于城市之中,完成巡逻的任务。

国内一家医院中,一台名叫达芬奇的手术机器人,正在用灵活的机械臂,精准又有效地缝合着患者的伤口……

我原本也以为,作为标准的金领职业,律师、审计师、手术医师这些工种都需要多年的专业教育和经验积累。但现在,人工智能可以用深度学习能力迅速抹平准入门槛,然后用效率来击败活生生的我们。

围棋、翻译、医疗、银行…….瞠目结舌地,我发现这些原本只属于人类的疆域,正在一片一片地被人工智能蚕食,大幅地沦陷。

多米诺骨牌,正在一块接一块地迅速倒塌!

除了这些,人工智能居然还会[创造],写新闻,作诗、谱曲,而且它参与写的曲子还冲上全球榜单第二名……我真是慢慢意识到,那些一度被认为电脑不可能做到的事情,居然都被一一实现了。

(人工智能的写作进入了人类的文学奖评选)

人工智能正在一步步逼近我们,这个毋庸置疑了,可我没想到的是它会如此之快。

我现在深刻意识到,在未来,也许没有任何一只饭碗是铁打的。

因为在未来,孩子不只是在跟优秀的同龄人竞争,更有不需要睡觉还会24小时自动学习的机器人和他竞争。

2

我为什么想让孩子现在就接触编程

>理由一:让孩子做未来的引领者,而不是被迫淘汰者

未来的10年必定是科技时代,而科技对各个行业的改造也越来越快。上文中类似的例子太多了,我不想多说了!所以,从娃未来安身立命的角度考虑,培养孩子的科技思维是绝对没错的。

人工智能的底层逻辑就是编程,未来如果孩子不懂编程,它是没办法和智能机器沟通的。尽管未来孩子的世界可能不会有太大的生存压力,但我并不希望,孩子长大之后,跟不上他们那个时代的变化。而我更希望,孩子可以与时代同步,从容生活乃至引领时代。做一个引领者,而不是被迫淘汰者。

>理由二:英语是通向全球的语言,编程是通向未来的语言,两个都很重要

现在很多家庭会让孩子出国留学,也意识到从小学英语的重要性,英语作为一种全球通用语言,孩子接触的时间越早,肯定越驾轻就熟,所以我们家也是一直在坚持学英语。

其实在目前留学最热的美国,已经有30%的院校开设编程课,当地政府也希望越来越多的学生可以掌握编程技能,发展学院的特色。从杭州15岁高三女孩郭文景获得信奥奖项被哈佛录取,再到武汉外校英中国际班学生沈凡收到库珀联盟学院的录取通知书,并获得56万元高额奖学金。你会发现,编程学习的经历在申请书上起到巨大作用,科创作品更能加深面试官对于学生的肯定和好感。

其实,不止美国,全世界都在加强中小学生的编程能力。

英国将2014年设立为“year of code”,规定所有5-16岁的学生都必须学习编程;

以色列,早在上世纪90年代中期,教育部部长就明确表示,计算机科学应该同其他科学学科一样受到重视,在高中就开始传授。

加拿大,许多专家意识到在数字化的今天,编程应该成为一种必备的技能,在中小学里应该与阅读、写作和算术“平起平坐”。

日本,2020年以后,日本计划中小学都必须开始编程课程,学生必修此课程。

所以,一个是英语、一个是编程,一个是让孩子通向全球,一个是让孩子通向未来,无论遇到多大困难,我们都会坚持学下去。

>理由三:锻炼孩子逻辑思维能力,而小学是最佳启蒙期

你会发现,身边的一些孩子很有说话欲望,表达很有逻辑,而且做事也有计划,而另一些孩子表达不清自己的想法,说话也没有前因后果,这就是逻辑思维能力的差异造成的,而编程就有可能通过可见的代码、工具、运行结果,去不断梳理抽象的逻辑思维,再通过动手实践把抽象思维给具象化地表现出来。

更具体点,“编程思维(computational thinking)”就是“理解问题——找出路径”的思维过程,它由分解、模式识别、抽象、算法四个步骤组成。通过这四个步骤,一个棘手的复杂问题先被拆解成一系列好解决的小问题;每一个小问题被单独检视、思考,搜索解决方案;然后,聚焦几个重要节点,忽视小细节,形成解决思路;最后,设计步骤,执行——问题解决。

这一点我认为是编程对孩子成长、培养高效的思考模式、做事视角,帮助最大的。

同时,根据教育认知学,孩子会在7岁左右开始形成抽象逻辑思维,整个7-12岁是抽象逻辑思维的最佳形成期。

所以学编程的最佳时机是小学段,趁孩子现在课业负担不重,逻辑思维也快,帮他们掌握一门有益终生的技能,我觉得就是在正确的时间做正确的事。

>理由四:投入成本低,后期回报大,功利角度也很值

相比其他兴趣,编程还有一个很大的优势——前期投入非常少(后期更少),试错成本非常低。你学琴吧,琴买了,课上了,头一年就砸了好几万。然后发现娃不是这个料,沉没成本已经太高了,结果只能继续烧,投入更多的钱和时间,沉默成本更高,出坑更难!

但编程呢?简直是普通家庭的福利!机器人还得买道具呢!编程啥都不需要,只要一个电脑一根网线。可能一开始老师带上路花点学费,上路以后,靠自学,泡牛人论坛就能一路开挂了,网上开源免费的资源实在太多了!

从功利回报来看,现在国内外对编程人才渴求度就不用我说了吧,单单中国,软件行业每年的人才缺口就超过一百万。而人工智能技术人员更是“少而精”的人群,相比于传统程序员,人工智能尤其是深度学习的人才更是严重供不应求。

“做深度学习的人工智能博士生,现在一毕业能拿到年薪200万到300万美元的offer。李开复曾经这样说。当然,并不是说学编程孩子未来一定要做程序员,但至少为孩子多出一个职业选择。

>理由五:短期来看,编程对孩子现在的帮助也很大

说了这么多,有家长会说,这些都是长远的利处,有没有眼前就能看的见的好处?真有!我身边有很多孩子学了编程后,变得听话了,学习主动性提高了。还有很多孩子粗心毛病改掉了,养成细心的习惯,因为编程里从没有“差不多”二字,只有“严谨和准确”,一步不对,程序就走不通。

还有学了编程英语、数学成绩提高的。还有学了编程,改掉了游戏上瘾的坏习惯,因为孩子有了上帝视角,开始自己编游戏了。还有小朋友为了多学会编程,时间规划也增强了……等等,太多案例了,除此之外,孩子的团队协作能力、解决问题能力等等都有很大的提升!

这些都是你立马就能看的到的变化。

所以,综合以上理由,我身边很多家长朋友们问我,这个时代,应该给孩子学一点什么?最好是孩子未来必须的一些基础技能。

我都会郑重地说:编程

因为人工智能时代需要的是:能够和机器人协调工作并且富有创意和想象力的复合型人才。

奥数、美术、钢琴、跆拳道,以前也许会让孩子脱颖而出,但不足以让孩子在人工智能时代立足。

3

给家长的几点建议

1、兴趣始终是第一位的

没有任何一个兴趣爱好是适合所有人的,编程也同样如此。想让孩子学编程的基础就是小朋友有兴趣,愿意尝试。对于数学基础一般的小朋友,学习编程与学习奥数一样,其实应该谨慎选择。它会是一把双刃剑,如果使用好了,对于数学课程的理解会非常有助益,例如循环的变量、过程、分支判断等等,这些更高阶的一些数学概念对他未来的学习会有比较好的一个促进作用;但是如果产生更大的逆反心理,就得不偿失了。

2、别太急功近利

学编程不像学音乐舞蹈美术这些,会有立竿见影的效果。对很多小朋友来说,编程有助于孩子逻辑思维的锻炼,系统观的形成,以及创造能力和解决问题能力的培养。但这些都是潜移默化的,需要有一个积累的过程。

3、机构的选择   

我建议要按两个原则来选择:

一看是否有完善的课程体系,能够让孩子持续的系统化学习。市场上有一些机构“拼凑”出的课程,实际上只是让孩子反复做小练习而已。性价比不高。

二看是编程课程能否与其它学科关联,与学校的学科教育相呼应,提升单位时间的学习价值。小朋友们上学后的课外时间本来就不多,如果在编程学习中能融入数学、逻辑、几何、物理、甚至语文等其它知识,能大大提升学习的性价比。

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